Weinmann's Prediction

I really do not want to deviate too much from the topic of US/Cuba negotiations, but I think it is also important to address the obstacles towards this pragmatic path.

As was mentioned below, Florida politics alone poses perhaps the main obstacle to terminating the US embargo (as well as other US policies) towards Cuba, which is itself an obstacle to finding a solution through the United Nations [check below for the background].

Lissa Weinmann, senior fellow at the World Policy Institute, made it very clear when she wrote in 2004 that "Washington’s policy toward Cuba over the years can best be described as an extension of Florida politics by other means."[1]

Given that Cuban-Americans in South Florida vote republican and vote in high numbers, their political leadership calls the shots for now. The political leadership of Cuban-Americans is well funded and closely linked to the current administration, and this is a significant obstacle.

Yet, we are nearing a crossroad. As Fidel Castro draws closer to being absent from the political equation, and the current republican administration nearing its end, and a half century of a sanctions policy that is embarassing to mention, current forces in the US/Cuba political arena are set for a change.

Weinmann's predictions in 2004 still apply. This current admministration "will need to begin addressing the inexorable forces that compel us to chart a new course of principled engagement with Cuba."[1]

Let's explore the option of US/Cuba negotiations.

[1]http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/articles/wpj04-1/weinmann.html